Realistic Target for 2025 Car Sales, Won't Reach 900 Thousand

KatadataOTO – The Association of Indonesia Automotive Industries (Gaikindo) previously set a target for new car sales in 2025 of 900 thousand units.

This figure is considered quite high and difficult to achieve given the current economic conditions. This is because new car sales as of October have only reached around 660 thousand units.

To date, Gaikindo has not announced a revision to the car sales target. However, a number of manufacturers and observers have opined that the figure will likely stop at around 700 thousand units.

“With only two months left, an average car sale of over 120 thousand units per month is needed to meet the remaining target,” said Yannes Martinus Pasaribu, an automotive observer and academic from the Bandung Institute of Technology (ITB), to KatadataOTO recently.

Photo : Kia

Of course, this will be difficult to realize. This is because monthly car sales in Indonesia are around 60 thousand units. Only this October did the figure manage to break 70 thousand again, a level last reached in March 2025.

Even with the help of exhibitions and programs, a car sales figure of 120 thousand units per month is not realistic.

Furthermore, Yannes highlighted that there have been no incentives or stimuli specifically disbursed by the government to address the weakening purchasing power in the automotive sector.

“Therefore, referring to the current economic conditions which are still under purchasing power pressure, it seems the realistic target for retail sales in 2025 is in the range of 730 thousand-760 thousand units,” Yannes affirmed.

Photo : Suzuki

For your information, retail car sales (distribution from dealers to consumers) in the January-October 2025 period were recorded at 660,659 units. Meanwhile, wholesales, or shipments from factories to dealers, amounted to 645,844 units.

October car sales showed a positive trend, at 74,720 units. There was a 17.2 percent increase from the previous month, which was 63,752 units.

Compared to the same period in 2024, this achievement is still 9.6 percent lower. Last year's car sales (retail) from January to October were 731,113 units, while wholesales were 7111.064 units.