Iran-US Conflict Could Push Up Fuel Prices

KatadataOTO – Tensions between Iran and the United States (US) continue to escalate. The relationship between the two countries is now on a knife's edge.

This situation was triggered by massive domestic protests, which have shaken Iran in recent times.

It is even said to be the worst unrest in the history of the Islamic Republic. This condition has made Donald Trump, the President of the United States, speak out.

He is said to be taking firm action to defend anti-government demonstrators in Iran.

Photo: Pixabay

Iran immediately refused to stay silent amidst the threat. They will target the United States if it dares to interfere.

If war breaks out in the Middle East, it will certainly have an impact. For example, on the selling price of crude oil.

Thus, the price of fuel oil (BBM) in several countries, including Indonesia, could potentially be hiked in the near future.

“The tension between Iran and the United States in January 2026 has a real impact on Indonesia,” said Yannes Martinus Pasaribu, an automotive observer and academic from the Bandung Institute of Technology (ITB), to KatadataOTO some time ago.

According to Yannes, the heating up of relations between the United States and Iran caused world oil price volatility to rise by more than three percent.

Reaching the highest level in seven weeks, due to concerns about supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20 percent of the global oil supply passes.

“Indonesia, as a net importer of oil and LNG, is also affected. So even a small escalation can trigger a surge in our energy import costs,” Yannes continued.

He stated that the increase in energy prices would cause import costs to soar and risk widening the burden of fuel subsidies in the state budget (APBN).

In addition, this condition has a rapid impact on fuel compensation, transportation inflation, and pressure on the rupiah as dollar demand increases.

“As an illustration, every USD 1 per barrel increase in the ICP can add more than IDR 2.65 trillion to the fuel compensation burden,” Yannes emphasized.

Photo: Pertamina

Therefore, if the price of crude oil creeps up by 10 US dollars per barrel, the additional fuel compensation could reach over IDR 26.5 trillion.

Therefore, the government must anticipate this so that fuel prices do not increase in the near future.

An increase in fuel prices will make it difficult for motorcycle and car drivers. Especially for users of non-subsidized fuels such as Pertamax, Pertamax Green 95, and Pertamax Turbo.